Fundamentals of Intelligence Analysis
The Fundamentals of Intelligence Analysis: Identifying sources of information suitable to your endeavour, forming a collection plan. What tools, techniques and expertise do I need to turn my information into intelligence?
What is analysis?
- An overview of analytical process and identification of several key types of intelligence analysis.
- Understanding the concept of the Intelligence cycle
- Understanding the Principles of intelligence
- The importance of direction to intelligence procedures
Information V Intelligence
- Information-any knowledge imparted about a particular matter or circumstance.
- Intelligence-is all about digging deeper into that, ascertaining what it means –and then acting upon it!
- Information-an incomplete information is still information
- Intelligence-is a comprehensive understanding!
What is Intelligence?
A basic definition of intelligence: The ability to obtain and apply knowledge and skills. McGlynn, Garner
What is Analysis?
‘An examination of data and facts to uncover and understand cause-effect relationships, thus providing basis for problemsolving and decision making.’ from businessdictionary.com
Ascertaining requirements means defining those questions to which intelligence is anticipated to make a contribution.
Requirements also means specifying the collection of certain types of intelligence. The intelligence capabilities are limited, therefore, priorities must be set.
Descriptive intelligence requirements are factual or relational in nature
Factual requirements are immutable and clear cut
All 5 ‘Ws’ of Kipling apply here
- Explanatory requirements may be
- Interpretative (meaning of information)
- Causal (looks for the causes)
- Evidential (includes data such images, footages etc)
Anticipatory (Predictive & Speculative)
Predictive types of analysis requirements seek the likelihood of a given scenario or chain of events.
Speculative requirements seek to know what will happen in some given time period into the future based upon various assumptions or hypotheses
Once requirements and priorities have been identified, the process of intelligence collection starts. Some requirements have particular types of collection; some may require several types of collection. It is crucial to decide as to how much can or should be collected to meet each requirement.
Processing and Examination
Collection produces information which must undergo examination before it can be regarded as intelligence and given to analysts.
Analysis and Production
Analysis and production includes the integration, evaluation (not assessment), and analysis of all available data, and the preparation of intelligence products.
Principles of Intelligence
There are no universally accepted fix principles of Intelligence.
Organizations usually formulate principles in accordance with their needs.
There is very little literary work produced on non security related intelligence
The Usual Principles
- Intelligence Analysis should have pre-defined outcomes (even for the ‘speculative’ type)
- Intelligence Analysis exercise must remain consistent with those principles
- Intelligence Analysis exercise must be continuous
- The employed methodology must be flexible (destination is more important than the path)
- There should be pre-defined KPIs
- There should be a knowledge management system in place
- There should be a feedback & Debrief system in place